These research reports were authored by Dr. Andre Uddin, who worked for ten years as a top ranked biotech, pharmaceutical & medical device equity research analyst at Merrill Lynch, National Bank Financial and Research Capital.  If you would like an independent written research report and/or a financial model done for a specific disease, drug or a company please contact us.

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Anemia Market Analysis - A Comprehensive Report

* The primary purpose of this 80 page comprehensive report (with 25 figures/tables) is to: (1) present an overview of the anemia market, (2) identify the key pharmaceutical and biotech companies involved in the anemia marketplace, (3) provide a competitive analysis and description of anemia products on the market and anemia drug candidates that have failed and that are still in development (best-in class anemia drug candidates & first-in-class anemia drug candidates), (4) summarize anemia clinical trials and anemia trial results (5) review which anemia markets should be targeted and how to best position an anemia drug candidate and (6) review key licensing deals for various anemia drug candidates.

* Over the past several years, the EPO class of drugs for treating anemia has faced market challenges. The key issues facing this class of drugs are safety issues, reimbursement issues in the U.S. as well as biosimilar competition in Europe and other regions. The current EPO market is primarily split between three key players: Amgen with Aranesp and Epogen, Johnson & Johnson with Procrit/Eprex and Roche with NeoRecormon/Epogin. Affymax's Omontys (peginesatide) marketed by Takeda was voluntarily recalled after post-marketing reports showed serious hypersentistivity reactions. Biosimilars of EPO are starting to make in-roads into the European market.

* AMAG's Feraheme, is a recently approved IV iron replacement therapy indicated for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) with iron deficiency anemia (IDA) that has a more convenient dosing than other iron based treatments.

* Given the sheer size of the anemia market, any new entrant that achieves even modest penetration should be able to garner substantial revenues. Novel agents which can enhance efficacy and safety, may provide benefit for hypo-responsive EPO patients and should make inroads into the existing EPO market. In particular, if new candidates prove to be safe and efficacious it should significantly expand the market volumes by deepening penetration in the pre-dialysis chronic kidney disease and chemotherapy induced anemia markets.

* Historically, licensing agreements for anemia pipeline products have commanded large premiums. Affymax and Fibrogen have forged significant licensing agreements with new entrants Takeda (deal size =US$637M) and Astellas (regional deal size = US$815M & Japanese deal size =US$338M). AMAG also forged a US$280M licensing deal with Takeda for its Feraheme product. Accerelon Pharma signed a US$242M licensing deal with Celgene in '11, specifically for anemia. The '11 Accerelon deal expanded upon its original Celgene US$1BN deal signed in '08 for cancer related bone loss. Xenon Pharma signed a two year US$51M agreement, in '06, for researching a novel anemia target with Roche.

* There are multiple key reasons justifying the development of novel first in class anemia products: (1) the anemia market is large, (2) the existing products on the market have been flagged with safety issues resulting in a reduction in their utilization , (3) there is a significant absence of late-stage, novel anemia products in development, (4) there is a historical precedence for signing large anemia licensing deals.

* Companies listed in this report: Amgen, Johnson & Johnson, Eli Lilly, GlaxoSmithKline, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Astellas Pharma, Affymax, Fibrogen, AMAG Pharmaceuticals, BioSyent Pharma, Roche Pharmaceuticals, Shire, Sandoz, Hexal, Medice Arzneimittel Pütter GmbH & Co. KG, Hospira and Stada Arzneimittel AG Kyowa Hakko Kirin, JCR Pharmaceutical, Kissei, Therapure Biopharma, Wockhardt, Biocon, Shantha Biotech (A Sanofi Company), Reliant Life Sciences, Intas Biopharmaceutica Pvt. Ltd, CinnaGen/Zahravi, Gulf Pharmaceutical Ind. (JULPHAR), Zuventus, Hamni Pharmaceutical, Bioton S.A, Xenetic Biosciences, Serum Institute of India, Medgenics, Zydus Cadila, Prolong Pharmaceuticals, Akebia Therapeutics, Acceleron Pharma, Celgene, HemaQuest Pharmaceuticals, BioLink Life Sciences, Prometic Life Sciences, bluebird bio, Xenon Pharma, Emmaus Medical, Teva Pharmaceuticals, Lonza, Pfizer, Samsung Electronics (SEC), Samsung Biologics, Biogen Idec, Samsung Bioepis, Boehringer Ingelheim, Fujifilm, Kyowa Hakko Kirin, Baxter, and Momenta

The report originally written in November, 2012 was updated to include new anemia clinical updates on March, 2013 and the number of pages has increased from 64 to 80, and the number of figures/tables increased from 21 to 25. 

Anemia Market Analysis  - A Comprehensive Report will be emailed as a pdf shortly upon receiving payment. 



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  Global Benlysta Sales Financial Model 

* This is a working Benlysta sales model developed for investors or companies.   BioStrategy's Benlysta financial sales model provides detailed sales forecasts of the first new lupus drug that was FDA approved in over 55 years.  Companies developing new lupus therapeutics can use this Benlysta sales model as a guide for forecasting their own lupus drug candidate sales.  Investors who are looking to value and model lupus therapeutics can use this financial forecast as a sales guide.  This model has detailed lupus prevalence rates, other key information regarding the lupus patient population as well as all of our key assumptions used to construct this lupus financial sales model.  BioStrategy's Benlysta model is updated to include 2012 actual GlaxoSmithKline sales figures of Benlysta and our lupus model runs out to 2020.  This model provides Benlysta pharmaceutical sales forecasts from 2013-2020 for the U.S., Europe, R.O.W. and Canada.  The U.S. component of the Benlysta model is the most detailed of each of the geographic regions.  As an added bonus, there is also a list of late-stage competitive lupus products in development listed in one of the worksheets.  A chart showing our annual global sales estimates for Benlysta is also include in a worksheet.  BioStrategy's Benlysta  sales model is done in Excel, can be revised, and comes as a .xlsx file.  This model was last updated in Q1 2013.  GSK acquired Human Genome Sciences for US$3 billion net of cash and debt in 2012, primarily due to its lupus drug Benlysta.  No sample Benlysta model is available to download.

Global Benlysta Sales Model in Excel will be emailed as a xlsx file shortly upon receiving payment.




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BIO101: A Guide to Biotech Investing

“If you can't explain it to a six year old, then you don't understand it yourself.” - Albert Einstein 

A comprehensive 100+ page in-depth report (with 40 figures/tables) on how to invest in the biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and medical devices sectors which are arguably some of the most exciting and volatile industries in the stock market. As we witness the growth of this industry, there will be investment opportunities. This guide explains some ways to assess biotech, pharmaceutical, specialty pharmaceutical and medical device companies.  

This biotech investment guide serves as a primer and reference to understanding terminology and regulatory pathways in the healthcare sector. 

Some of the items we discuss in this report include: (i) how to value non-profitable and profitable biotech companies; (ii) a review of the different therapeutic classes; (iii) what is the regulatory approval process for biotech, pharmaceutical and medical device products; (iv) how are generics approved and how these products affect pricing; (v) what is the risk assessment and analysis to be considered; (vi) clinical trial terminology and endpoints, (vii) intellectual property, exclusivity, the importance of patents and life-cycle management (viii) criteria to scrutinize a biotech company/building a checklist for investing, (ix) strategic implications of disruptive forces and (vi) business models for specialty pharma companies. 

Valuations of profitable biotech companies are often hard for value investors to digest. Assessing the valuations of non-profitable companies is even more challenging due to the complex science and highly speculative nature of financial forecasting when a company turns profitable. This report aims to outline some of the metrics we utilize to assess both the valuation of profitable and non-profitable companies. 

Using the information in the guide can help you to hone your biotech investing skills.

The BIO101: A Guide To BioTech Investing document will be emailed in Adobe pdf format shortly upon receiving payment.



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